Trade Analysis

Miguel Tejada (BAL) for Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, and Micheal Costanzo (HOU)

I'm a Baltimore fan who was genuinely thrilled when we signed Tejada in 2004, he's given us a few great years and was the best successor to Ripken's position. But age has caught up with him and we really should unload him and the 26 million he's owed the next two years.

At first look the Trade seems a little screwy, a well established Star shortstop for an under-utilized outfielder (Scott), three young arms (Albers,Patton,Sarfate), and well rated third base prospect (Costanzo)

This Trade works for both sides. Lets Compare Each of the Postions that have changed for Houston.

BA OBP SLG RC%
Houston 2007
SS Mark Loretta .287 .349 .372 0%
RF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 24%

Houston 2008 - Based on '07 stats
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
RF Micheal Bourn .277 .348 .378 21% (18 SB in 119 AB)

It looks like a decent improvement. Miguel should provide some extra power, taking advantage of the short Left Field fence in Minute Maid Park. Micheal Bourn was a good pick up and will be a great leadoff hitter.

Houston Lineup should look like this next year:

RF Micheal Bourn 12%
CF Hunter Pence 58%
1b Lance Berkman 50%
LF Carlos Lee 50%
SS Miguel Tejada 21%
3b Mike Lamb 24%
2b Kaz Matsui 12%
C Brad Ausmus -33%

This Lineup gives me a 27% RC%, Next to Houston's line up last year with a 19%, a decent jump but giving all those arms might make too much of a difference.

How about Baltimore then?
BA OBP SLG RC%
Baltimore 2007
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
LF Jay Payton .256 .292 .376 -24%
Baltimore 2008- Based on '07
SS Chris Gomez .302 .341 .391 -5%
LF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 31%

Already a huge improvement, plus the hopeful improvement in the bullpen. Granted I don't think Luke Scott will keep it up. Here's there most likely Lineup for next year

2b Brian Roberts 33%
Cf Tike Redman 29%
RF Nick Markakis 27%
LF Luke Scott 24%
DH Aubrey Huff 7%
1b Kevin Millar 7%
C Ramon Hernadez -15%
3b Melvin Mora -4%
SS Chris Gomez -5%

This Lineup nets a 18% RC% as opposed to a 5% RC%. There's a lot more uncertainty with this lineup as niether Luke Scott, Tike Redman or Chris Gomez have had a steady position.

This is definately a good sign for Baltimore, especially showing Andy Macphail is ready to rebuild.

EDIT:

Apparently I haven't been paying much Attention to Astros third baseman, turns out Mike Lamb is a free agent. So the Starting Third baseman for Houston next year will be Ty Wigginton (5% RC%) with a lineup rating of 25%.

I also read this weeks Sports Weekly, they profiled the Astros prior to the trade. They pointed out that Matt Albers and Troy Patton were going to compete for a spot on the rotation. There was also an Interview with Cecil Cooper manager of the Astros where he stated that he would have Matsui hitting second with Hunter Pence hitting Third. This was before obtaining Tejada, so I'm not sure how it will be now. His intention as well is to let rookie J.R. Towles start at Catcher.

Taking all this new information into account, I have to recant and say this was a terrible trade for Houston. There was a improvement at Shortstop and they were able to move Luke Scott. The problem wasn't really their offense last year anyway, It was their pitching now they've given up Three good pitchers for a little extra offense, even though Miguel not any better than Luke Scott. Honestly, they would have almost better off not even trading for Micheal Bourn.