We can at least consider A-rod a legitimate and somewhat obvious MVP, but Jimmy Rollins?
My first question is what is it truly meant to be an MVP? Value to his team? Well let's compare the offensive stats of the best players on the Phillies.
Hits,HR, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, RC/27
Utley 176 22 9 .332 .390 .566 8.74
Howard 142 47 1 .268 .392 .584 8.01
Burrell 121 30 0 .256 .401 .502 7.00
Rollins 212 30 41 .296 .341 .531 6.88
Hmmmm, the numbers look decent except for RC/27 but its obvious he had more Plate Appearances than Anyone else, so lets look at how removing each member will affect his team.
RC%
Team 17%
Utley 12%
Howard 12%
Burrell 14%
Rollins 14%
Hmmm, losing any of the 4 of them has about the same effect. Well how about defense then?
Range Factor, Lg Rf
Utley 5.01 4.23
Howard 9.24 7.14
Burrell 1.33 1.55
Rollins 4.36 4.00
Well so what does this mean? There is not a lot of variation in the bell curve for these numbers. All I can say is that even though Rollins won a Gold Glove, his offense didn't keep up as much as the others on his team. I'll also point out David Wright won a gold glove and was more productive than anyone on the Phillies (RC/27=8.96)
I can't agree at all with this pick by the voters. Honestly I would have picked Chipper Jones, his Rc/27 is 9.73 which is about twice the league average despite his defense being a little lacking. Matt Holliday (9.09) or David Wright would be great picks as well.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Trade Analysis
Miguel Tejada (BAL) for Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, and Micheal Costanzo (HOU)
I'm a Baltimore fan who was genuinely thrilled when we signed Tejada in 2004, he's given us a few great years and was the best successor to Ripken's position. But age has caught up with him and we really should unload him and the 26 million he's owed the next two years.
At first look the Trade seems a little screwy, a well established Star shortstop for an under-utilized outfielder (Scott), three young arms (Albers,Patton,Sarfate), and well rated third base prospect (Costanzo)
This Trade works for both sides. Lets Compare Each of the Postions that have changed for Houston.
BA OBP SLG RC%
Houston 2007
SS Mark Loretta .287 .349 .372 0%
RF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 24%
Houston 2008 - Based on '07 stats
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
RF Micheal Bourn .277 .348 .378 21% (18 SB in 119 AB)
It looks like a decent improvement. Miguel should provide some extra power, taking advantage of the short Left Field fence in Minute Maid Park. Micheal Bourn was a good pick up and will be a great leadoff hitter.
Houston Lineup should look like this next year:
RF Micheal Bourn 12%
CF Hunter Pence 58%
1b Lance Berkman 50%
LF Carlos Lee 50%
SS Miguel Tejada 21%
3b Mike Lamb 24%
2b Kaz Matsui 12%
C Brad Ausmus -33%
This Lineup gives me a 27% RC%, Next to Houston's line up last year with a 19%, a decent jump but giving all those arms might make too much of a difference.
How about Baltimore then?
BA OBP SLG RC%
Baltimore 2007
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
LF Jay Payton .256 .292 .376 -24%
Baltimore 2008- Based on '07
SS Chris Gomez .302 .341 .391 -5%
LF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 31%
Already a huge improvement, plus the hopeful improvement in the bullpen. Granted I don't think Luke Scott will keep it up. Here's there most likely Lineup for next year
2b Brian Roberts 33%
Cf Tike Redman 29%
RF Nick Markakis 27%
LF Luke Scott 24%
DH Aubrey Huff 7%
1b Kevin Millar 7%
C Ramon Hernadez -15%
3b Melvin Mora -4%
SS Chris Gomez -5%
This Lineup nets a 18% RC% as opposed to a 5% RC%. There's a lot more uncertainty with this lineup as niether Luke Scott, Tike Redman or Chris Gomez have had a steady position.
This is definately a good sign for Baltimore, especially showing Andy Macphail is ready to rebuild.
EDIT:
Apparently I haven't been paying much Attention to Astros third baseman, turns out Mike Lamb is a free agent. So the Starting Third baseman for Houston next year will be Ty Wigginton (5% RC%) with a lineup rating of 25%.
I also read this weeks Sports Weekly, they profiled the Astros prior to the trade. They pointed out that Matt Albers and Troy Patton were going to compete for a spot on the rotation. There was also an Interview with Cecil Cooper manager of the Astros where he stated that he would have Matsui hitting second with Hunter Pence hitting Third. This was before obtaining Tejada, so I'm not sure how it will be now. His intention as well is to let rookie J.R. Towles start at Catcher.
Taking all this new information into account, I have to recant and say this was a terrible trade for Houston. There was a improvement at Shortstop and they were able to move Luke Scott. The problem wasn't really their offense last year anyway, It was their pitching now they've given up Three good pitchers for a little extra offense, even though Miguel not any better than Luke Scott. Honestly, they would have almost better off not even trading for Micheal Bourn.
I'm a Baltimore fan who was genuinely thrilled when we signed Tejada in 2004, he's given us a few great years and was the best successor to Ripken's position. But age has caught up with him and we really should unload him and the 26 million he's owed the next two years.
At first look the Trade seems a little screwy, a well established Star shortstop for an under-utilized outfielder (Scott), three young arms (Albers,Patton,Sarfate), and well rated third base prospect (Costanzo)
This Trade works for both sides. Lets Compare Each of the Postions that have changed for Houston.
BA OBP SLG RC%
Houston 2007
SS Mark Loretta .287 .349 .372 0%
RF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 24%
Houston 2008 - Based on '07 stats
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
RF Micheal Bourn .277 .348 .378 21% (18 SB in 119 AB)
It looks like a decent improvement. Miguel should provide some extra power, taking advantage of the short Left Field fence in Minute Maid Park. Micheal Bourn was a good pick up and will be a great leadoff hitter.
Houston Lineup should look like this next year:
RF Micheal Bourn 12%
CF Hunter Pence 58%
1b Lance Berkman 50%
LF Carlos Lee 50%
SS Miguel Tejada 21%
3b Mike Lamb 24%
2b Kaz Matsui 12%
C Brad Ausmus -33%
This Lineup gives me a 27% RC%, Next to Houston's line up last year with a 19%, a decent jump but giving all those arms might make too much of a difference.
How about Baltimore then?
BA OBP SLG RC%
Baltimore 2007
SS Miguel Tejada .296 .348 .442 7%
LF Jay Payton .256 .292 .376 -24%
Baltimore 2008- Based on '07
SS Chris Gomez .302 .341 .391 -5%
LF Luke Scott .255 .348 .504 31%
Already a huge improvement, plus the hopeful improvement in the bullpen. Granted I don't think Luke Scott will keep it up. Here's there most likely Lineup for next year
2b Brian Roberts 33%
Cf Tike Redman 29%
RF Nick Markakis 27%
LF Luke Scott 24%
DH Aubrey Huff 7%
1b Kevin Millar 7%
C Ramon Hernadez -15%
3b Melvin Mora -4%
SS Chris Gomez -5%
This Lineup nets a 18% RC% as opposed to a 5% RC%. There's a lot more uncertainty with this lineup as niether Luke Scott, Tike Redman or Chris Gomez have had a steady position.
This is definately a good sign for Baltimore, especially showing Andy Macphail is ready to rebuild.
EDIT:
Apparently I haven't been paying much Attention to Astros third baseman, turns out Mike Lamb is a free agent. So the Starting Third baseman for Houston next year will be Ty Wigginton (5% RC%) with a lineup rating of 25%.
I also read this weeks Sports Weekly, they profiled the Astros prior to the trade. They pointed out that Matt Albers and Troy Patton were going to compete for a spot on the rotation. There was also an Interview with Cecil Cooper manager of the Astros where he stated that he would have Matsui hitting second with Hunter Pence hitting Third. This was before obtaining Tejada, so I'm not sure how it will be now. His intention as well is to let rookie J.R. Towles start at Catcher.
Taking all this new information into account, I have to recant and say this was a terrible trade for Houston. There was a improvement at Shortstop and they were able to move Luke Scott. The problem wasn't really their offense last year anyway, It was their pitching now they've given up Three good pitchers for a little extra offense, even though Miguel not any better than Luke Scott. Honestly, they would have almost better off not even trading for Micheal Bourn.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
AL MVP?
Alex Rodriguez was considered basically a slam dunk MVP, but is was he really the only choice?
Lets Look at his basic stats, with a few others as well...
Runs HR RBI BA SLG SB
A-Rod 143 54 156 .314 .645 24
Magglio 117 28 139 .363 .595 4
Big Papi 116 35 117 .332 .621 3
Wow it seems pretty obvious here that he was the best, Right?
No, this is an obvious case of misleading statistics, I seem to have omitted a few things.
We Should Consider some things about the team each plays for with the players removed.
BA OBP SLG
New York .322 .355 .443
Detroit .278 .330 .442
Boston .274 .348 .425
So A-Rod's team was on base more often and was better able to drive in a runner.
So we can't use the runs and RBI. Well what's can we use?
H+BB 2b OBP
A-Rod 278 31 .422
Magglio 292 54 .434
Big Papi 293 52 .445
That seems to make A-Rod's lead disappear but by how much?
Well what can use to take all these factors in to account?
The Runs Created formula!
It will take into account both the difference in times on base and ability to drive in. It also negates the effects of each teams difference in ability.
There are many different versions of the formula, this is my favorite
RC=(Hits+Walk-Caught Stealing-Grounded into Double Play) X (Total Bases + .55 X Stolen Bases)/(Plate Appearances)
If you want you figure how a lineup made up of how just this player would do per game (27 outs) divide the Runs Created by a players ratio of (outs/27).
Lets see how they did:
RC RC/27
A-Rod 148.68 10.04
Magglio 143.86 10.25
Big Papi 143.29 10.54
Wait that doesn't solve anything! Why is A-Rod's RC highest but RC/27 is lowest?
I left something else out, A-rod had more at bats which also resulted in more outs...
So who's the best of Group?
Probably A-Rod anyway, but I just wanted to think it through first, after all isn't that whole point of learning anyway?
Lets Look at his basic stats, with a few others as well...
Runs HR RBI BA SLG SB
A-Rod 143 54 156 .314 .645 24
Magglio 117 28 139 .363 .595 4
Big Papi 116 35 117 .332 .621 3
Wow it seems pretty obvious here that he was the best, Right?
No, this is an obvious case of misleading statistics, I seem to have omitted a few things.
We Should Consider some things about the team each plays for with the players removed.
BA OBP SLG
New York .322 .355 .443
Detroit .278 .330 .442
Boston .274 .348 .425
So A-Rod's team was on base more often and was better able to drive in a runner.
So we can't use the runs and RBI. Well what's can we use?
H+BB 2b OBP
A-Rod 278 31 .422
Magglio 292 54 .434
Big Papi 293 52 .445
That seems to make A-Rod's lead disappear but by how much?
Well what can use to take all these factors in to account?
The Runs Created formula!
It will take into account both the difference in times on base and ability to drive in. It also negates the effects of each teams difference in ability.
There are many different versions of the formula, this is my favorite
RC=(Hits+Walk-Caught Stealing-Grounded into Double Play) X (Total Bases + .55 X Stolen Bases)/(Plate Appearances)
If you want you figure how a lineup made up of how just this player would do per game (27 outs) divide the Runs Created by a players ratio of (outs/27).
Lets see how they did:
RC RC/27
A-Rod 148.68 10.04
Magglio 143.86 10.25
Big Papi 143.29 10.54
Wait that doesn't solve anything! Why is A-Rod's RC highest but RC/27 is lowest?
I left something else out, A-rod had more at bats which also resulted in more outs...
So who's the best of Group?
Probably A-Rod anyway, but I just wanted to think it through first, after all isn't that whole point of learning anyway?
Opening Comments
This blog will be used to share my discoveries while analyzing Baseball and all its permutations. I'm also a general sports fan and might make some comments on other things as I go along.
Thank You and Enjoy,
Lotaso
Thank You and Enjoy,
Lotaso
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