Pujols on the Pirates

Earlier this week I had a discussion about the Pittsburgh Pirates, specifically on their sheer disaster of the last season. It was stated in the discussion that the pirates were so bad that even if they had Albert Pujols they would finish in last place. I thought on this and decided to test the theory.

First step Pittsburgh scored 636 Runs and gave up 768, this translates to Pythagorean record of 67-94, but they really had a record of 62-99, so I'll assume that their new record will be -5 of their new Pythagorean record.

I compared their actual runs scored to runs created (636-659), they lost 23 runs or ~-4% to expected.

So I'll take their full run elements and subract enough plate appearances to fit Pujols.Now Pujols played 160 games so I can safely assume no one will get any plate appearances at first. So I subtract all the plate appearances for those who played first, including a fraction of Garrett Jones for his 30 games there.

Name          AB   H       2b    3b  HR SB BB   RC
Pirates2009 5417 1364  289  34 125  90  499  659
Laroche      324    80     25    1    12   2     41   48
Jones          115    34     8      0    16   4     15   25
Pearce        165    34     13    1    4     1     21   19
Total           4813 1216 243  32  101 83   422 569

Now I add Pujols stats to the team and observe the teams runs created rise from 659 to 730.

Name           AB   H      2b   3b HR SB BB  RC
OtherPirates 4813 1216 243 32 101 83  422 569
Pujols           568   186   45   1   47   16  115 179
Total            5381 1402 288 33 148  99  537 730

Okay so we assume similar run luck and subtract 4%, bringing the teams 'actual' runs scored to 701. So now their Pythagorean record is now 74-88. Now assuming win luck is the same, their 'actual' record would be 69-93. So even though Pujols' monster ability was enough to improve they would not be quite good enough to beat out Houston's 74 wins to move out of the cellar. But if you were to even out both their run and win luck they improve to 77-85, almost enough to beat out the reds for 4th place. All this just proves it's better to be lucky than good.

Three Way trade...

Biggest trade so far this offseason sees plenty of prospects, a young starter, a good lefty specialist and a disappointing slugger in his prime being switched around between the Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks.

To start the comparisons we look at each team as seperate trades:

Yankees Give:

OF Austin Jackson (.300/.354/.405, 4HR, 24 SB in AAA),

RHP Ian Kennedy (4-4, 1.59 ERA in 22.2 IP in AAA)

LHP Phil Coke (4-3, 4.50 ERA in 60 IP, 21 HD)

for

CF Curtis Granderson (.249/.327/.453, 30 HR, 20 SB)

So the best description for this is they reduced a redundancy, Austin Jackson is quite a bit like Brett Gardner.  Ian Kennedy has been the least ready for his time in the majors among the Yankees 'young guns' (Joba, Phil Hughes and Ian) maybe it's a great time to move him while he still has value for his perceived ceiling. Phil Coke was an extremely valuable piece in their bullpen but if they move Joba there, the loss is negated. Curtis Granderson is extremely valuable to them, he'll fill the ever revolving door in center with at least a passing glove. His skills will also allow him to fill either Damon or Matsui's spot in the lineup. Everyone assumes his power will increase in New Yankee stadium but his .276 BABIP is severely below the rest of his career(.337, .362, .317) so he will also rebound his batting average somewhat.

Diamondbacks give:

LHP Daniel Schlereth (0.98 ERA in 27.2 IP in minors; 1-4, 5.89 ERA in 18.1 IP in majors)

RHP Max Scherzer (9-11, 4.12 in 170.2 IP)

For

RHP Edwin Jackson (13-9, 3.62 ERA in 214 IP)

RHP Ian Kennedy

So to break it down, they traded a good young starter (scherzer) for a slightly better, slightly older one (jackson), meh... There has been a lot of talk about how Scherzer is one those 'unlimited ceiling' type starter, I guess Arizona didn't agree with the hype. The other half is the young fireballing reliever for a slightly older starter who's been a bit of a disappointment in New York. Ian has been injured some so it's hard to tell where he is going. Schlereth has limited experience in the pros but has good K numbers but needs to work on his control.

Detroit Gives

CF Curtis Granderson

RHP Edwin Jackson

for

OF Austin Jackson

LHP Phil Coke

RHP Max Scherzer

LHP Daniel Schlereth

It seems apparent that Detroit is extremely concerned about its bullpen, a little too much I believe. They essentially came out on a push between E. Jackson/Scherzer, Max being younger and E. Jackson was only a bit better. Austin Jackson will take Granderson's spot, but it's hard to compare. Granderson is a good fielder with great power and is a proven player, while Austin is a at least as good of fielder but will never have any power. Granderson also walks quite a bit and wasn't viewed as too expensive. Austin is only 22 so his ceiling is a long way away but he'll never be the player Granderson is now. So the entire trade revolves around Phil Coke and Schlereth holding down a bullpen that should have plenty of people returning from injuries (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya) It Just feels like they hamstrung their offense for a couple of pitchers who've only really pitched 2 seasons in the majors combined.